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The over-prediction of energy use by EPCs in Great Britain: A comparison of EPC-modelled and metered primary energy use intensity

Few, J; Manouseli, D; McKenna, E; Pullinger, M; Zapata-Webborn, E; Elam, S; Shipworth, D; (2023) The over-prediction of energy use by EPCs in Great Britain: A comparison of EPC-modelled and metered primary energy use intensity. Energy and Buildings , 288 , Article 113024. 10.1016/j.enbuild.2023.113024. Green open access

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Abstract

This analysis compares the difference between the Energy Performance Certificate (EPC)-modelled and smart-meter measured annual energy use on a like-for-like basis in 1,374 gas-heated British households from the Smart Energy Research Lab (SERL) Observatory. EPCs and metered energy use were converted to primary energy use intensity (PEUI) to provide a comparison of the same quantity for the first time. We show that EPCs predict significantly more energy use than metered in homes in Great Britain. EPC bands A and B show no statistically significant difference, but all other bands show a significant gap which increases as EPC rating worsens. The PEUI gap widens from −26 kWh/yr/m2 (−8%) for band C to −276 kWh/y/m2 (−48%) for bands F and G. Unlike previous research, we show that the difference persists in homes matching the EPC-model assumptions regarding occupancy, thermostat set-point and whole-home heating; suggesting that occupant behaviour is unlikely to fully explain the discrepancy. EPCs are a core tool in the residential energy sector, and the gap between EPC-modelled and metered energy use could have a significant impact on policy, research, and industry. Future research should investigate disaggregated components of energy use, the underlying thermal model, and assumptions regarding building characteristics.

Type: Article
Title: The over-prediction of energy use by EPCs in Great Britain: A comparison of EPC-modelled and metered primary energy use intensity
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2023.113024
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2023.113024
Language: English
Additional information: © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Keywords: Energy Performance Certificate, Performance gap, Energy demand, Domestic buildings, Homes, Smart meter
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10167970
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