Few, J;
Manouseli, D;
McKenna, E;
Pullinger, M;
Zapata-Webborn, E;
Elam, S;
Shipworth, D;
(2023)
The over-prediction of energy use by EPCs in Great Britain: A comparison of EPC-modelled and metered primary energy use intensity.
Energy and Buildings
, 288
, Article 113024. 10.1016/j.enbuild.2023.113024.
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Abstract
This analysis compares the difference between the Energy Performance Certificate (EPC)-modelled and smart-meter measured annual energy use on a like-for-like basis in 1,374 gas-heated British households from the Smart Energy Research Lab (SERL) Observatory. EPCs and metered energy use were converted to primary energy use intensity (PEUI) to provide a comparison of the same quantity for the first time. We show that EPCs predict significantly more energy use than metered in homes in Great Britain. EPC bands A and B show no statistically significant difference, but all other bands show a significant gap which increases as EPC rating worsens. The PEUI gap widens from −26 kWh/yr/m2 (−8%) for band C to −276 kWh/y/m2 (−48%) for bands F and G. Unlike previous research, we show that the difference persists in homes matching the EPC-model assumptions regarding occupancy, thermostat set-point and whole-home heating; suggesting that occupant behaviour is unlikely to fully explain the discrepancy. EPCs are a core tool in the residential energy sector, and the gap between EPC-modelled and metered energy use could have a significant impact on policy, research, and industry. Future research should investigate disaggregated components of energy use, the underlying thermal model, and assumptions regarding building characteristics.
Type: | Article |
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Title: | The over-prediction of energy use by EPCs in Great Britain: A comparison of EPC-modelled and metered primary energy use intensity |
Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.enbuild.2023.113024 |
Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2023.113024 |
Language: | English |
Additional information: | © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
Keywords: | Energy Performance Certificate, Performance gap, Energy demand, Domestic buildings, Homes, Smart meter |
UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10167970 |
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