Ervasti, J;
Pentti, J;
Seppälä, P;
Ropponen, A;
Virtanen, M;
Elovainio, M;
Chandola, T;
... Airaksinen, J; + view all
(2023)
Prediction of bullying at work: A data-driven analysis of the Finnish public sector cohort study.
Social Science and Medicine
, 317
, Article 115590. 10.1016/j.socscimed.2022.115590.
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Abstract
AIM: To determine the extent to which change in (i.e., start and end of) workplace bullying can be predicted by employee responses to standard workplace surveys. METHODS: Responses to an 87-item survey from 48,537 Finnish public sector employees at T1 (2017–2018) and T2 (2019–2020) were analyzed with least-absolute-shrinkage-and-selection-operator (LASSO) regression. The predictors were modelled both at the individual- and the work unit level. Outcomes included both the start and the end of bullying. Predictive performance was evaluated with C-indices and density plots. RESULTS: The model with best predictive ability predicted the start of bullying with individual-level predictors, had a C-index of 0.68 and included 25 variables, of which 6 remained in a more parsimonious model: discrimination at work unit, unreasonably high workload, threat that some work tasks will be terminated, working in a work unit where everyone did not feel they are understood and accepted, having a supervisor who was not highly trusted, and a shorter time in current position. Other models performed even worse, either from the point of view of predictive performance, or practical useability. DISCUSSION: While many bivariate associations between socioeconomic characteristics, work characteristics, leadership, team climate, and job satisfaction were observed, reliable individualized detection of individuals at risk of becoming bullied at workplace was not successful. The predictive performance of the developed risk scores was suboptimal, and we do not recommend their use as an individual-level risk prediction tool. However, they might be useful tool to inform decision-making when planning the contents of interventions to prevent bullying at an organizational level.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Prediction of bullying at work: A data-driven analysis of the Finnish public sector cohort study |
| Location: | England |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.socscimed.2022.115590 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2022.115590 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
| Keywords: | Lasso regression, Longitudinal, Psychosocial work environment, Risk prediction, Workplace bullying |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Division of Psychiatry UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Division of Psychiatry > Mental Health of Older People |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10166672 |
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