Niu, Xiaoxiao;
(2023)
Judgmental forecasting: Factors affecting lay people's expectations of inflation.
Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).
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Abstract
In this thesis, laypeople’s judgmental forecasting about inflation is reviewed and experimentally explored in six chapters. Inflation is defined as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) across the whole thesis. In Chapter 1, I review work on the formation of inflation expectations, drawing mainly from the economic literature. In Chapter 2, I review research on judgmental forecasting, drawing mainly from the literature in cognitive psychology and management science. In Chapter 3, three experiments are presented that were designed to determine how and when people employ internal information of experienced price changes to form inflation expectations. In Chapter 4, three experiments are used to investigate the effects of providing within-series and across-series historical information (inflation rates, interest rates and unemployment rates) on inflation expectations. In Chapter 5, two experiments are reported that examine how training using simple outcome feedback increases the accuracy of inflation judgments and improves the calibration of confidence in those judgments. Chapter 6 reports experiments designed to examine the effects of using different elicitation methods (point forecasts, interval forecasts and density forecasts) on the accuracy of inflation judgments. Chapter 7 is a concluding chapter that summarises findings from these experiments and suggests avenues for future work.
Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
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Qualification: | Ph.D |
Title: | Judgmental forecasting: Factors affecting lay people's expectations of inflation |
Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
Language: | English |
Additional information: | Copyright © The Author 2023. Original content in this thesis is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) Licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). Any third-party copyright material present remains the property of its respective owner(s) and is licensed under its existing terms. Access may initially be restricted at the author’s request. |
UCL classification: | UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > UCL School of Management UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences > Experimental Psychology UCL |
URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10165478 |
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