Clemmow, C; Rottweiler, B; Wolfowicz, M; Bouhana, N; Marchment, Z; Gill, P; (2023) The Whole Is Greater than the Sum of Its Parts: Risk and Protective Profiles for Vulnerability to Radicalization. Justice Quarterly pp. 1-27. 10.1080/07418825.2023.2171902. (In press).

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Abstract

This study examines how behavioral indicators co-occur as “risk profiles” across different domains relevant to risk assessment as theorized by a Risk Analysis Framework, and how these profiles impact upon vulnerability to radicalization. We unpack both the inter- and intra-domain relationships among profiles, identifying the relative importance of cumulative or interactive effects. We apply latent class analysis, a series of ANOVAs, and moderator analyses to a sample of the UK population (n = 1,500). We examine how the risk profiles relate to scores on the Radicalism Intention Scale, and how profiles relate to, and interact with, one another. Our results suggest that radicalization risk emerges fundamentally from both the interaction and cumulation of processes at different levels of analysis and is therefore highly context dependent. Risk assessment should rely less on quantifying specific indicators and attend to correctly inferring their functional relevance to the risk being assessed.

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