Basheer, Mohammed;
Nechifor, Victor;
Calzadilla, Alvaro;
Gebrechorkos, Solomon;
Pritchard, David;
Forsythe, Nathan;
Gonzalez, Jose M;
... Harou, Julien J; + view all
(2023)
Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile River with climate and socio-economic uncertainties.
Nature Climate Change
, 13
(1)
pp. 48-57.
10.1038/s41558-022-01556-6.
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Abstract
The uncertainties around the hydrological and socio-economic implications of climate change pose a challenge for Nile River system management, especially with rapidly rising demands for river-system-related services and political tensions between the riparian countries. Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile can help alleviate some of these stressors and tensions. Here we present a planning framework for adaptive management of the Nile infrastructure system, combining climate projections; hydrological, river system and economy-wide simulators; and artificial intelligence multi-objective design and machine learning algorithms. We demonstrate the utility of the framework by designing a cooperative adaptive management policy for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam that balances the transboundary economic and biophysical interests of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. This shows that if the three countries compromise cooperatively and adaptively in managing the dam, the national-level economic and resilience benefits are substantial, especially under climate projections with the most extreme streamflow changes.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile River with climate and socio-economic uncertainties |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41558-022-01556-6 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01556-6 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
| Keywords: | Science & Technology, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Physical Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, WATER, ADAPTATION, FRAMEWORK, PATHWAYS, AFRICA, BASINS, LEVEL, NEXUS, MODEL, DAM |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10164205 |
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