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The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria

Charnley, Gina EC; Yennan, Sebastian; Ochu, Chinwe; Kelman, Ilan; Gaythorpe, Katy AM; Murray, Kris A; (2022) The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria. PLOS Global Public Health , 2 (12) , Article e0000869. 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000869. Green open access

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Abstract

Nigeria currently reports the second highest number of cholera cases in Africa, with numerous socioeconomic and environmental risk factors. Less investigated are the role of extreme events, despite recent work showing their potential importance. To address this gap, we used a machine learning approach to understand the risks and thresholds for cholera outbreaks and extreme events, taking into consideration pre-existing vulnerabilities. We estimated time varying reproductive number (R) from cholera incidence in Nigeria and used a machine learning approach to evaluate its association with extreme events (conflict, flood, drought) and pre-existing vulnerabilities (poverty, sanitation, healthcare). We then created a traffic-light system for cholera outbreak risk, using three hypothetical traffic-light scenarios (Red, Amber and Green) and used this to predict R. The system highlighted potential extreme events and socioeconomic thresholds for outbreaks to occur. We found that reducing poverty and increasing access to sanitation lessened vulnerability to increased cholera risk caused by extreme events (monthly conflicts and the Palmers Drought Severity Index). The main limitation is the underreporting of cholera globally and the potential number of cholera cases missed in the data used here. Increasing access to sanitation and decreasing poverty reduced the impact of extreme events in terms of cholera outbreak risk. The results here therefore add further evidence of the need for sustainable development for disaster prevention and mitigation and to improve health and quality of life.

Type: Article
Title: The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000869
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000869
Language: English
Additional information: © 2022 Charnley et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Inst for Risk and Disaster Reduction
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10162249
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