McEwan, Phil;
Boyce, Rebecca;
Sanchez, Juan Jose Garcia;
Sjöström, C David;
Stefansson, Bergur;
Nolan, Stephen;
Correa-Rotter, Ricardo;
... Heerspink, Hiddo JL; + view all
(2022)
Extrapolated longer-term effects of the DAPA-CKD trial: a modelling analysis.
Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation
10.1093/ndt/gfac280.
(In press).
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: The Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease (DAPA-CKD) trial assessed dapagliflozin versus placebo, in addition to standard therapy, in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and albuminuria, and was terminated prematurely due to overwhelming efficacy. The study objective was to model the long-term clinical outcomes of DAPA-CKD beyond the trial follow-up. METHODS: A Markov model extrapolated event incidence per 1000 patients and CKD progression rates for patients receiving dapagliflozin or placebo over a 10-year time horizon. We derived treatment-specific CKD stage transition matrices using DAPA-CKD trial data. We extrapolated relevant efficacy endpoints using parametric survival equations for all-cause mortality and generalized estimating equations for recurrent events. RESULTS: When extrapolated over a 10-year period, patients randomized to dapagliflozin spent more time in CKD stages 1-3 and less in stages 4-5 than placebo [0.65 (95% CrI 0.41, 0.90) and -0.23 (95% CrI -0.45, 0.00) years per patient, respectively]. Dapagliflozin prevented an estimated 83 deaths and 51 patients initiating kidney replacement therapy per 1000 patients over 10 years. Predicted rates of hospitalized heart failure and abrupt declines in kidney function were reduced (19 and 39 estimated events per 1000 patients, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Adding dapagliflozin to standard therapeutic management of CKD is expected to have long-term cardiorenal benefit beyond what has been demonstrated in the DAPA-CKD trial, with patients predicted to live longer with fewer complications.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Extrapolated longer-term effects of the DAPA-CKD trial: a modelling analysis |
| Location: | England |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1093/ndt/gfac280 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1093/ndt/gfac280 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the ERA. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com. |
| Keywords: | SGLT2 inhibitor, chronic kidney disease, dapagliflozin, dialysis, kidney transplantation |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Medicine UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Medicine > Renal Medicine |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10159040 |
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