Gentile, Roberto; Cremen, Gemma; Galasso, Carmine; Jenkins, Luke T; Manandhar, Vibek; Mentese, Emin Yahya; Guragain, Ramesh; Gentile, Roberto; Cremen, Gemma; Galasso, Carmine; Jenkins, Luke T; Manandhar, Vibek; Mentese, Emin Yahya; Guragain, Ramesh; McCloskey, John; - view fewer (2022) Scoring, selecting, and developing physical impact models for multi-hazard risk assessment. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction , Article 103365. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103365.

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Abstract

This study focuses on scoring, selecting, and developing physical fragility (i.e., the probability of reaching or exceeding a certain DS given a specific hazard intensity) and/or vulnerability (i.e., the probability of impact given a specific hazard intensity) models for assets, with particular emphasis on buildings. Given a set of multiple relevant hazards for a selected case-study region, the proposed procedure involves 1) mapping the relevant asset classes (i.e., construction types for a given occupancy) in the region to a set of existing candidate fragility, vulnerability and/or damage-to-impact models, also accounting for specific modelling requirements (e.g., time dependency due to ageing/deterioration of buildings, multi-hazard interactions); 2) scoring the candidate models according to relevant criteria to select the most suitable ones for a given application; or 3) using state-of-the-art numerical or empirical methods to develop fragility/vulnerability models not already available. The approach is demonstrated for the buildings of the virtual urban testbed “Tomorrowville”, considering earthquakes, floods, and debris flows as case-study hazards.

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