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Scoring, selecting, and developing physical impact models for multi-hazard risk assessment

Gentile, Roberto; Cremen, Gemma; Galasso, Carmine; Jenkins, Luke T; Manandhar, Vibek; Mentese, Emin Yahya; Guragain, Ramesh; (2022) Scoring, selecting, and developing physical impact models for multi-hazard risk assessment. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction , Article 103365. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103365. Green open access

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Abstract

This study focuses on scoring, selecting, and developing physical fragility (i.e., the probability of reaching or exceeding a certain DS given a specific hazard intensity) and/or vulnerability (i.e., the probability of impact given a specific hazard intensity) models for assets, with particular emphasis on buildings. Given a set of multiple relevant hazards for a selected case-study region, the proposed procedure involves 1) mapping the relevant asset classes (i.e., construction types for a given occupancy) in the region to a set of existing candidate fragility, vulnerability and/or damage-to-impact models, also accounting for specific modelling requirements (e.g., time dependency due to ageing/deterioration of buildings, multi-hazard interactions); 2) scoring the candidate models according to relevant criteria to select the most suitable ones for a given application; or 3) using state-of-the-art numerical or empirical methods to develop fragility/vulnerability models not already available. The approach is demonstrated for the buildings of the virtual urban testbed “Tomorrowville”, considering earthquakes, floods, and debris flows as case-study hazards.

Type: Article
Title: Scoring, selecting, and developing physical impact models for multi-hazard risk assessment
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103365
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103365
Language: English
Additional information: © 2022 Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Inst for Risk and Disaster Reduction
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10158410
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