Li, Yixin;
(2022)
Dementia in China: Past, Present, Future and Perspective on Intervention.
Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).
Preview |
Text
PhD thesis_Yixin Li_final version.pdf - Submitted Version Download (2MB) | Preview |
Abstract
Background: According to a 2019 estimate, some 57 million people were living with dementia globally, and of these 15 million were living in China. Population ageing in China means this number will increase substantially in the coming decades. Projecting the future burden of dementia in China is essential for policymakers. Aim: The aim of this thesis is to examine the recent time trends in dementia incidence in China, project the dementia prevalence to 2035 using a Markov model and to explore the potential impact of reduction in salt intake on dementia burden to 2035. Method: A joint model was employed to study the time trend in dementia incidence in longitudinal cohort data. This incidence trend contributed input data for a novel state-transition Markov model to project the future burden of dementia in China and applied this model to explore the impacts of reduction in salt intake on dementia cases in China in the future. Results: An annual 2.5% increase in dementia incidence was found from this study after accounting for competing risks of mortality and non-random losses to follow-up. For the burden of dementia in the future, the number of people with dementia is projected to be 22.1 million by 2025, 27.1 million by 2030 and 30.6 million by 2035. Prevalence of dementia is projected to be 10.0% in 2025, 10.5% in 2030 and 10.6% in 2035. An intervention scenario was examined using the Markov model. Compared with the persisting 2008 average salt intake level, assuming intake is reduced to 5 g/person per day by 2025 and remains stable to 2035, the intervention might result in 431,250 additional dementia cases by 2035 in China. Conclusions: The dementia incidence was increasing in China between 2002 to 2014. The number of dementia cases is projected to increase substantially by 2035. And the reduction in salt intake might result in further cases by 2035.
| Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Qualification: | Ph.D |
| Title: | Dementia in China: Past, Present, Future and Perspective on Intervention |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © The Author 2022. Original content in this thesis is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) Licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). Any third-party copyright material present remains the property of its respective owner(s) and is licensed under its existing terms. Access may initially be restricted at the author’s request. |
| UCL classification: | UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health UCL |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10153154 |
Archive Staff Only
 |
View Item |
