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Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease and Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events Using Clinical and Genetic Risk Scores for Cardiovascular Risk Factors

Ramírez, Julia; van Duijvenboden, Stefan; Young, William J; Tinker, Andrew; Lambiase, Pier D; Orini, Michele; Munroe, Patricia B; (2022) Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease and Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events Using Clinical and Genetic Risk Scores for Cardiovascular Risk Factors. Circulation: Genomic and Precision Medicine , 15 , Article e003441. 10.1161/circgen.121.003441. (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery disease (CAD) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) are the leading causes of death in the general population, but risk stratification remains suboptimal. CAD genetic risk scores (GRSs) predict risk independently from clinical tools, like QRISK3. We assessed the added value of GRSs for a variety of cardiovascular traits (CV GRSs) for predicting CAD and MACE and tested their early-life screening potential by comparing against the CAD GRS only. METHODS: We used data from 379 581 participants in the UK Biobank without known cardiovascular conditions (follow-up, 11.3 years; 3.3% CAD cases and 5.2% MACE cases). In a training subset (50%) we built 3 scores: QRISK3; QRISK3 and an established CAD GRS; and QRISK3, the CAD GRS and the CV GRSs. In an independent subset (50%), we evaluated each score’s performance using the concordance index, odds ratio and net reclassification index. We then repeated the analyses without considering QRISK3. RESULTS: For CAD, the combination of QRISK3 and the CAD GRS had a better performance than QRISK3 alone (concordance index, 0.766 versus 0.753; odds ratio, 5.47 versus 4.82; net reclassification index, 7.7%). Adding the CV GRSs did not significantly improve risk stratification. When only looking at genetic information, the combination of CV GRSs and the CAD GRS had a better performance than the CAD GRS alone (concordance index, 0.637 versus 0.625; odds ratio, 2.17 versus 2.07; net reclassification index, 3.3%). Similar results were obtained for MACE. CONCLUSIONS: In individuals without known cardiovascular disease, the inclusion of CV GRSs to a clinical tool and an established CAD GRS does not improve CAD or MACE risk stratification. However, their combination only with the CAD GRS increases prediction performance indicating potential use in early-life screening before the advanced development of conventional cardiovascular risk factors.

Type: Article
Title: Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease and Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events Using Clinical and Genetic Risk Scores for Cardiovascular Risk Factors
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1161/circgen.121.003441
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCGEN.121.003441
Language: English
Additional information: © 2022 The Authors. Circulation: Genomic and Precision Medicine is published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided that the original work is properly cited.
Keywords: Cause of death, coronary artery disease, epidemiology, odds ratio, risk factors
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Cardiovascular Science > Population Science and Experimental Medicine > MRC Unit for Lifelong Hlth and Ageing
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Cardiovascular Science > Population Science and Experimental Medicine
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Cardiovascular Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Cardiovascular Science > Clinical Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10152625
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