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A Bayesian hierarchical model for improving exercise rehabilitation in mechanically ventilated ICU patients

Hardcastle, Luke; Livingstone, Samuel; Black, Claire; Ricciardi, Federico; Baio, Gianluca; (2022) A Bayesian hierarchical model for improving exercise rehabilitation in mechanically ventilated ICU patients. ArXiv: Ithaca, NY, USA. Green open access

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Abstract

Patients who are mechanically ventilated in the intensive care unit (ICU) participate in exercise as a component of their rehabilitation to ameliorate the long-term impact of critical illness on their physical function. The effective implementation of these programmes is hindered, however, by the lack of a scientific method for quantifying an individual patient's exercise intensity level in real time, which results in a broad one-size-fits-all approach to rehabilitation and sub-optimal patient outcomes. In this work we have developed a Bayesian hierarchical model with temporally correlated latent Gaussian processes to predict V˙O2, a physiological measure of exercise intensity, using readily available physiological data. Inference was performed using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation. For practical use by clinicians V˙O2 was classified into exercise intensity categories. Internal validation using leave-one-patient-out cross-validation was conducted based on these classifications, and the role of probabilistic statements describing the classification uncertainty was investigated.

Type: Working / discussion paper
Title: A Bayesian hierarchical model for improving exercise rehabilitation in mechanically ventilated ICU patients
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2206.14047
Language: English
Additional information: This is an Open Access paper published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) Licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Keywords: Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling, Gaussian Processes, INLA, Exercise Rehabilitation, Critical Illness
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Statistical Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10151775
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