Manouchehrinia, Ali;
Kingwell, Elaine;
Zhu, Feng;
Tremlett, Helen;
Hillert, Jan;
Ramanujam, Ryan;
(2021)
A multiple sclerosis disease progression measure based on cumulative disability.
Multiple Sclerosis Journal
, 27
(12)
, Article 1352458520988632. 10.1177/1352458520988632.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: Existing severity measurements in multiple sclerosis (MS) are often cross-sectional, making longitudinal comparisons of disease course between individuals difficult. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to create a severity metric that can reliably summarize a patient's disease course. METHODS: We developed the nARMSS - normalized ARMSS (age-related MS severity score) over follow-up, using the deviation of individual ARMSS scores from the expected value and integrated over the corresponding time period. The nARMSS scales from -5 to +5; a positive value indicates a more severe disease course for a patient when compared to other patients with similar disease timings. RESULTS: Using Swedish MS registry data, the nARMSS was tested using data at 2 and 4 years of follow-up to predict the most severe quartile during the subsequent period up to 10 years total follow-up. The metric used was area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC). This resulted in measurements of 0.929 and 0.941. In an external Canadian validation cohort, the equivalent AUC-ROCs were 0.901 and 0.908. CONCLUSION: The nARMSS provides a reliable, generalizable and easily measurable metric which makes longitudinal comparison of disease course between individuals feasible.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | A multiple sclerosis disease progression measure based on cumulative disability |
| Location: | England |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1177/1352458520988632 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1177/1352458520988632 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access pages (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage). |
| Keywords: | Multiple sclerosis, disability, outcome, progression measure |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health > Primary Care and Population Health UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10151128 |
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