UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

The Economics of Walking About and Predicting Unemployment in the United States

Blanchflower, David G; Bryson, Alex; (2023) The Economics of Walking About and Predicting Unemployment in the United States. National Institute Economic Review (In press). Green open access

[thumbnail of Bryson_niesr final The Economics of Walking About.pdf]
Preview
Text
Bryson_niesr final The Economics of Walking About.pdf

Download (395kB) | Preview

Abstract

We show consumer expectations indices from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan predict unemployment upticks in the United States up to 18 months in advance, both at national and at state-level. These data predict six of the last six recessions called by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee six to eighteen months before the date of recession. The consumer expectations data for 2021 and 2022 are consistent with recession.

Type: Article
Title: The Economics of Walking About and Predicting Unemployment in the United States
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/national-i...
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: unemployment, recession, consumer expectations
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education > UCL Institute of Education
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education > UCL Institute of Education > IOE - Social Research Institute
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education
UCL
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10149452
Downloads since deposit
51Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item