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Temporal and spatial earthquake clustering revealed through comparison of millennial strain-rates from ³⁶Cl cosmogenic exposure dating and decadal GPS strain-rate

Iezzi, Francesco; Roberts, Gerald; Faure Walker, Joanna; Papanikolaou, Ioannis; Ganas, Athanassios; Deligiannakis, Georgios; Beck, Joakim; ... Gheorghiu, Delia; + view all (2021) Temporal and spatial earthquake clustering revealed through comparison of millennial strain-rates from ³⁶Cl cosmogenic exposure dating and decadal GPS strain-rate. Scientific Reports , 11 , Article 23320. 10.1038/s41598-021-02131-3. Green open access

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Abstract

To assess whether continental extension and seismic hazard are spatially-localized on single faults or spread over wide regions containing multiple active faults, we investigated temporal and spatial slip-rate variability over many millennia using in-situ 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating for active normal faults near Athens, Greece. We study a ~ NNE-SSW transect, sub-parallel to the extensional strain direction, constrained by two permanent GPS stations located at each end of the transect and arranged normal to the fault strikes. We sampled 3 of the 7 seven normal faults that exist between the GPS sites for 36Cl analyses. Results from Bayesian inference of the measured 36Cl data implies that some faults slip relatively-rapidly for a few millennia accompanied by relative quiescence on faults across strike, defining out-of-phase fault activity. Assuming that the decadal strain-rate derived from GPS applies over many millennia, slip on a single fault can accommodate ~ 30–75% of the regional strain-rate for a few millennia. Our results imply that only a fraction of the total number of Holocene active faults slip over timescales of a few millennia, so continental deformation and seismic hazard are localized on specific faults and over a length-scale shorter than the spacing of the present GPS network over this time-scale. Thus, (1) the identification of clustered fault activity is vital for probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, and (2) a combination of dense geodetic observations and palaeoseismology is needed to identify the precise location and width of actively deforming zones over specific time periods.

Type: Article
Title: Temporal and spatial earthquake clustering revealed through comparison of millennial strain-rates from ³⁶Cl cosmogenic exposure dating and decadal GPS strain-rate
Location: England
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-02131-3
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-02131-3
Language: English
Additional information: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Keywords: Natural hazards, Solid Earth sciences
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Earth Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Inst for Risk and Disaster Reduction
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10148261
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