Ekins, Paul; Drummond, Paul; Scamman, Daniel; Paroussos, Leonidas; Keppo, Ilkka; (2022) 1.5°C Climate and Energy Scenarios: Impacts on Economic Growth. Oxford Open Energy 10.1093/ooenergy/oiac005. (In press).

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Abstract

In the context of calls for ‘de-growth’ (reduction in GDP) in developed countries for them to be able to reduce emissions to ‘net zero’ in time for the temperature target in the Paris Agreement to be met, this article explores the various impacts on economic growth in the IPCC scenarios that limit the average global temperature increase in 2100 to 1.5oC. It finds that the impacts are generally small and that in no case is ‘degrowth’ required, although the requirements for the rate and nature of technological developments are challenging. The article then reports on a modelling exercise that investigates in more detail the economic dynamics of achieving the 1.5oC target. It finds that, as with the IPCC scenarios, and assuming the feasibility of at-scale deployment of carbon capture and negative emission technologies, economic growth continues throughout this century, with a major contribution coming from the investment required to decarbonise the energy system.

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