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The Determinants of the 13-Year Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation in a Russian Population Cohort of Middle and Elderly Age

Shapkina, M; Ryabikov, A; Mazdorova, E; Titarenko, A; Avdeeva, E; Mazurenko, E; Shcherbakova, L; ... Malyutina, S; + view all (2022) The Determinants of the 13-Year Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation in a Russian Population Cohort of Middle and Elderly Age. Journal of Personalized Medicine , 12 (1) , Article 122. 10.3390/jpm12010122. Green open access

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Abstract

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia and a predictor of the complications of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (ASCVDs), particularly thromboembolic events and the progression of heart failure. We analyzed the determinants of the 13-year risk of incident AF in a Russian population cohort of middle and elderly age. A random population sample (n = 9360, age 45–69 years) was examined at baseline in 2003–2005 and reexamined in 2006–2008 and 2015–2017 in Novosibirsk (the HAPIEE study). Incident AF was being registered during the average follow-up of 13 years. The final analysis included 3871 participants free from baseline AF and cardiovascular disease (CVD) who participated in all three data collections. In a multivariable-adjusted Cox regression model, the 13-year risk of AF was positively associated with the male sex (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.20; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.26–3.87); age (HR = 1.10 per year; 95% CI 1.07–1.14); body mass index (BMI), (HR = 1.11 per unit; 95% CI 1.07–1.15); systolic blood pressure (SBP), (HR = 1.02 per 1 mmHg; 95% CI 1.01–1.02), and it was negatively associated with total cholesterol (TC), (HR = 0.79 per 1 mmol/L; 95% CI 0.66–0.94). In women, the risk of AF was more strongly associated with hypertension (HT) and was also negatively related to total cholesterol (TC) level (HR = 0.74 per 1 mmol/L; 95% CI 0.56–0.96). No independent association was found with mean alcohol intake per drinking occasion. These results in a Russian cohort have an implication for the prediction of AF and ASCVD complications in the general population.

Type: Article
Title: The Determinants of the 13-Year Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation in a Russian Population Cohort of Middle and Elderly Age
Location: Switzerland
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.3390/jpm12010122
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.3390/jpm12010122
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright: © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/).
Keywords: Cox regression analysis, HAPIEE study, Russian population cohort, aging, arterial hypertension, atherosclerosis, atrial fibrillation, determinants, diabetes mellitus, obesity, prevalence
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health > Epidemiology and Public Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10142878
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