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Regression discontinuity designs for time-to-event outcomes: An approach using accelerated failure time models

Adeleke, M; Baio, G; O'Keeffe, A; (2022) Regression discontinuity designs for time-to-event outcomes: An approach using accelerated failure time models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society , 185 (3) pp. 1216-1246. 10.1111/rssa.12812. Green open access

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Abstract

Regression discontinuity designs (RDDs) have been developed for the estimation of treatment effects using observational data, where a treatment is administered using an externally defined decision rule, linked to a continuous assignment variable. Typically, RDDs have been applied to situations where the outcome of interest is continuous and non-temporal. Conversely, RDDs for time-to-event outcomes have received less attention, despite such outcomes being common in many applications. We explore RDDs for a time-to-event outcome subject to right censoring. An accelerated failure time (AFT) approach is used to establish a treatment effect estimate for a fuzzy RDD (where treatment is not always strictly applied according to the decision rule). This estimation approach is robust to different levels of fuzziness and unobserved confounding, assessed using simulation studies and compares favourably to established structural AFT models. A motivating example is presented in which models are fitted to estimate the effect of metformin on mortality and cardiovascular disease rate using real observational data from UK Primary Care.

Type: Article
Title: Regression discontinuity designs for time-to-event outcomes: An approach using accelerated failure time models
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12812
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12812
Language: English
Additional information: © 2022 The Authors. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Statistical Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Keywords: accelerated failure time, observational study, regression discontinuity design, time-to-event
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Statistical Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10141935
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