Otárola-Madrigal, K; Gentile, R; Sousa, L; Galasso, C; (2021) Investigating ground-motion duration effects on building portfolio loss estimates. In: Papadrakakis, M and Fragiadakis, M, (eds.) COMPDYN 2021: 8th International Conference on Computational Methods in Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering: Proceedings, Volume I. (pp. pp. 3360-3376). Institute of Research and Development for Computational Methods in Engineering Sciences (ICMES): Athens, Greece.

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Abstract

Earthquake-induced ground-motion duration can be an important factor to consider when assessing ground-motion damage potential, as evidenced by recent earthquake events worldwide. In current practice, duration is commonly relegated to implicit, qualitative considerations. This study introduces a framework to explicitly quantify the influence of duration on building portfolio direct economic losses. To this end, a simulation-based probabilistic risk modelling framework is developed for different synthetic building portfolios impacted by a case-study seismic source. Two building typologies, representative of distinct vulnerability classes in southern Europe, are considered. A simulation-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is performed, explicitly simulating duration jointly with spectral-shape-related intensity measures. Sets of long and one-to-one spectrally-equivalent short duration ground-motion records are selected and then used jointly to perform nonlinear dynamic analysis and derive fragility models for each considered building typology. Fragility relationships are derived by using average spectral acceleration as the primary intensity measure and: 1) maximum inter-storey drift ratio as a demand parameter, indirectly accounting for ground-motion duration (through the adopted nonlinear modelling strategy); 2) maximum inter-storey drift ratio as demand parameter, explicitly considering duration as an intensity measure together with spectral shape, in a vector-valued format. For each case, vulnerability models are developed by combining the fragility relationships with a building-level damage-to-loss model. The portfolio expected annual losses estimated using the described vulnerability models are critically compared and discussed. Depending on the location/portfolio, the impact of ground-motion duration can be significant, and the proposed approaches allow an analyst to account for it in a practical way.

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