UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

Seeing Beyond the Trees: Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Impact of Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes

Cengiz, D; Arindrajit, D; Lindner, A; Zentler-Munro, D; (2022) Seeing Beyond the Trees: Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Impact of Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes. Journal of Labor Economics , 40 (S1) S203-S247. 10.1086/718497.

[thumbnail of Mainbody_MWparticipatiosJOLE_FINALSUB.pdf] Text
Mainbody_MWparticipatiosJOLE_FINALSUB.pdf - Accepted Version
Access restricted to UCL open access staff until 2 April 2023.

Download (1MB)
[thumbnail of OnlineAppendix_MWparticipatiosJOLE_FINALSUB.pdf] Text
OnlineAppendix_MWparticipatiosJOLE_FINALSUB.pdf - Accepted Version
Access restricted to UCL open access staff until 2 April 2023.

Download (1MB)

Abstract

We assess the effect of the minimum wage on labor market outcomes. First, we apply modern machine learning tools to predict who is affected by the policy. Second, we implement an event study using 172 prominent minimum wage increases between 1979 and 2019. We find a clear increase in wages of affected workers and no change in employment. Furthermore, minimum wage increases have no effect on the unemployment rate, labor force participation, or labor market transitions. Overall, these findings provide little evidence of changing search effort in response to a minimum wage increase.

Type: Article
Title: Seeing Beyond the Trees: Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Impact of Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes
DOI: 10.1086/718497
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1086/718497
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Economics
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10140298
Downloads since deposit
3Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item