Mazor, Matan; (2021) Self-Modelling in Inference about Absence. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

Representing the absence of an object requires one to know that they would know if it were present. This form of second-order, counterfactual reasoning critically relies on access to a mental self-model, specifying expected perceptual and cognitive states under different world states. This thesis addresses open questions regarding inference about absence in perceptual decision making: its reliance on prior metacognitive knowledge, relative encapsulation from metacognitive monitoring, neural underpinning, and relation with default-reasoning. I start by showing that in visual search, implicit metacognitive knowledge about spatial attention supports inference about the absence in the first trial of an experiment, and that this knowledge is dissociable from explicit metacognitive knowledge. Further underscoring the richness and complexity of this knowledge, I find that people are able to accurately predict their future search times, even for complex, unfamiliar displays. Participants’ predictions were better aligned with their own search times than with those of other participants, suggesting that this self-knowledge is person-specific. I then ask what factors contribute to confidence in decisions about presence and absence. Reverse-correlation analysis reveals stimulus features that contribute to detection decisions and confidence. I discuss these findings in the context of sensory noise estimation. Using functional MRI, I find that a network of frontal and parietal regions that are implicated in decision confidence are mostly invariant to whether subjective confidence is rated with respect to decisions about presence or absence. In interpreting these results, I formulate computational models that monitor fluctuations in external stimulus strength and in internal attentional states. Finally, in six behavioural experiments, different levels of the cognitive hierarchy are found to be sensitive to different notions of absence. I conclude with a discussion of ways in which inference about absence can be used by cognitive scientists for probing implicit metacognitive beliefs and studying the mental self-model.

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