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Apocalypse now, apocalypse when? Economic growth and structural breaks in Argentina (1886–2003)

Campos, NF; Karanasos, MG; Karoglou, M; Koutroumpis, P; Zopounidis, C; Christopoulos, A; (2022) Apocalypse now, apocalypse when? Economic growth and structural breaks in Argentina (1886–2003). Economics of Transition and Institutional Change , 30 (1) pp. 3-32. 10.1111/ecot.12315. Green open access

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Abstract

Argentina is the only country in the world that was developed in 1900 and developing in 2000. Although there is widespread consensus on the occurrence and uniqueness of this decline, an intense debate remains on its timing and underlying causes. This paper provides a first systematic investigation of the timing of the Argentine debacle. It uses an array of econometric tests for structural breaks and a range of GDP growth series covering 1886–2003. The main conclusion is the dating of two key structural breaks (in 1918 and 1948), which we argue support explanations for the debacle that highlight the slowdown of domestic financial development and trade protectionism (after 1918) and of institutional development (after 1948).

Type: Article
Title: Apocalypse now, apocalypse when? Economic growth and structural breaks in Argentina (1886–2003)
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1111/ecot.12315
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecot.12315
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Argentina, economic growth, structural breaks
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > SSEES
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10139507
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