Westley, K;
Andreou, G;
El Safadi, C;
Huigens, HO;
Nikolaus, J;
Ortiz-Vazquez, R;
Ray, N;
... Breen, C; + view all
(2021)
Climate change and coastal archaeology in the Middle East and North Africa: assessing past impacts and future threats.
Journal of Island and Coastal Archaeology
10.1080/15564894.2021.1955778.
(In press).
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Abstract
Climate change threatens coastal archaeology through storm flooding (extreme sea-level: ESL), long-term sea-level rise (SLR) and coastal erosion. Many regions, like the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), lack key baseline evidence. We present initial results from a climate change threat assessment of MENA's coastal heritage using the Maritime Endangered Archaeology inventory: a geospatial database of MENA maritime archaeological sites incorporating a disturbance/ threat assessment. It informs two analyses of past disturbance and future threat: (1) using the integral threat/disturbance assessment, and (2) geospatial extraction of information from external coastal change models. Analysis suggests <5% of documented coastal sites are definitely affected by coastal erosion but up to 34% could also have experienced past flooding, erosion, or storm action. Climate change-related threats will increase over the 21st Century and accelerate post-2050 if carbon emissions remain high. SLR and ESL could impact 14–25% of sites by 2050 and 18–34% by 2100. Over 30% to 40% of sites could be impacted by erosion by 2050 and 2100 respectively. Whilst documentation is ongoing and there remain modeling uncertainties, this approach provides a means to redress the absence of baseline data on climate change threats to coastal cultural heritage in MENA.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Climate change and coastal archaeology in the Middle East and North Africa: assessing past impacts and future threats |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1080/15564894.2021.1955778 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1080/15564894.2021.1955778 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Spatial analysis, remote sensing, coastal, Middle East and North Africa |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Institute of Archaeology UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Institute of Archaeology > Institute of Archaeology Gordon Square |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10136912 |
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