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A dynamic microsimulation model for epidemics

Spooner, F; Abrams, JF; Morrissey, K; Shaddick, G; Batty, M; Milton, R; Dennett, A; ... Birkin, M; + view all (2021) A dynamic microsimulation model for epidemics. Social Science & Medicine , Article 114461. 10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114461.

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A large evidence base demonstrates that the outcomes of COVID-19 and national and local interventions are not distributed equally across different communities. The need to inform policies and mitigation measures aimed at reducing the spread of COVID-19 highlights the need to understand the complex links between our daily activities and COVID-19 transmission that reflect the characteristics of British society. As a result of a partnership between academic and private sector researchers, we introduce a novel data driven modelling framework together with a computationally efficient approach to running complex simulation models of this type. We demonstrate the power and spatial flexibility of the framework to assess the effects of different interventions in a case study where the effects of the first UK national lockdown are estimated for the county of Devon. Here we find that an earlier lockdown is estimated to result in a lower peak in COVID-19 cases and 47% fewer infections overall during the initial COVID-19 outbreak. The framework we outline here will be crucial in gaining a greater understanding of the effects of policy interventions in different areas and within different populations.

Type: Article
Title: A dynamic microsimulation model for epidemics
DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114461
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114461
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Coronavirus, COVID-19, Microsimulation, SEIR, Spatial-interaction, Dynamics
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10136809
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