Santoso, I; (1990) The development of a model for the analysis of bus operations and competition. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

The new competitive environment in the bus industry that has been created by deregulation has forced operators to face a new situation where financial constraint becomes the main issue. The operation of public transport system has become more commercial than before and there is a need for greater accountability. These mean that operators need new skills so that they can adapt the service offered according to the level and the pattern of travel demand and, more importantly, estimate revenue more precisely. This implies that extra precautions are needed in deciding on the route to operate, the type of vehicle, the level of fares, the level of service frequency, and so on. Much prior work in the field of public transport operations has dealt with the operational strategy in terms of vehicle scheduling or crew rostering rather than considering it in a broader context. However, as the new operating environment has arisen in recent years, the broader questions mentioned above need to be addressed. The research being presented in this work describes the development of models that are applicable for the analysis of the operation of bus services, particularly in the context of the operational strategies mentioned above. In doing so, two models have been developed : one of single-route bus operations and the other of bus operations on a network. Both forms of model have been developed to represent the responses of passengers (demand) toward the service offered by the operator (supply) under monopoly conditions as well as in a competitive market. In the development of the model it has been assumed that passengers' decisions on which path they want to take, and on which bus they want to ride, are based upon the disutility of the alternatives available. Several issues such as : passenger assignment, the split between walking and bus trips, and route choice have been taken into consideration. Using the two models the implications of various operating strategies under the condition of a monopoly as well as a competitive regime have been investigated. The results of the exercises show that the performance of bus operation is strongly influenced by the level and the pattern of travel demand, and, more importantly, by the operational strategy of the service such as : the fare system, the type of vehicle used, and service frequencies.

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