Petrou, G;
Mavrogianni, A;
Symonds, P;
Davies, M;
(2021)
Beyond Normal: Guidelines on How to Identify Suitable Model Input Distributions for Building Performance Analysis.
In:
Proceedings of Building Simulation 2021: 17th Conference of IBPSA.
(pp. pp. 1421-1428).
International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA): Bruges, Belgium.
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Abstract
Building modelling is a valuable tool in the widespread efforts to decarbonise the built environment. To ensure modelling robustness, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques are often used. Such techniques commonly require model input distributions to be defined. This paper describes a novel approach, within the built environment, for identifying empirically-derived probability distributions of model inputs. Following data cleaning, candidate distributions selected based on measures of skewness and kurtosis are fitted using maximum likelihood estimation. The distribution that best describes the dataset is identified using Akaike Information Criterion and its derivatives along with goodness-of-fit plots. The method was demonstrated for a dataset of wall Uvalue measurements in English homes.
| Type: | Proceedings paper |
|---|---|
| Title: | Beyond Normal: Guidelines on How to Identify Suitable Model Input Distributions for Building Performance Analysis |
| Event: | Building Simulation 2021 |
| Location: | Bruges |
| Dates: | 01 September 2021 - 03 September 2021 |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.26868/25222708.2021.30333 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.26868/25222708.2021.30333 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty, Distribution Fitting, Building Performance Analysis, Building Simulation, Akaike Information Criterion |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10136381 |
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