Chainey, SP;
Lazarus, DL;
(2021)
More Offenders, More Crime: Estimating the Size of the Offender Population in a Latin American Setting.
Social Sciences
, 10
(9)
, Article 348. 10.3390/socsci10090348.
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Abstract
Research that has examined the high levels of crime experienced in Latin American settings has suggested that macrostructural variables (such as social inequality), and factors associated with development and institutional capacity, offer explanations for these high crime levels. Although useful, these studies have yet to quantify how these explanations translate to the dynamics of offending activities. In the current study, we examine a key component related to offending dynamics: the size of the offender population. Using two capture-recapture techniques and a bootstrap simulation, estimates were generated of the sizes of the offender populations for three comparable cities in Brazil, Mexico, and England. Each of the techniques generated similar estimates for the offender population size for each city, but with these estimates varying substantially between the cities. This included the estimated offender population size for the Brazilian city being twenty-five times greater than that for the English city. Risk of arrest values were also generated, with these calculated to be substantially lower for the Brazilian and Mexican cities than for the English city. The results provide a quantification of criminal behavior that offers a potential new insight into the high levels of crime that are experienced in Latin American settings.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | More Offenders, More Crime: Estimating the Size of the Offender Population in a Latin American Setting |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.3390/socsci10090348 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci10090348 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited |
| Keywords: | offender population; capture-recapture; risk of arrest; impunity; Brazil; Mexico |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Security and Crime Science |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10135796 |
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