Walbaum Garcia, Magdalena;
(2021)
Chronic Kidney Disease in Chile: Analysis of the present and future burden of the disease in the Chilean adult population.
Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).
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Abstract
Background: Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) is a leading public health problem, with substantial health and economic implications for the healthcare system and patients in Chile. I analysed the current prevalence of CKD in Chile, and estimated the future health and economic burden of the disease, at both population and individual level. Methods: First, I analysed two nationally representative Chilean Health Surveys. Secondly, I developed a dynamic stock and flow model to simulate the progression of CKD at a population level. Thirdly, I adapted the Schlackow and colleagues’ CKD-cardiovascular disease (CVD) model using Chilean data to estimate the impact of CKD at the individual level. All the models were developed and adapted using representative Chilean data and adopted the perspective of the Chilean public healthcare system. Results: Overall, 3.2% of adults aged 18+ had reduced kidney function. 15.4% of adults aged 40+ years had CKD Stages 1-5, including the 9.6% of adults at CKD Stages 1-2. By the year 2050, there is an expected increase in cases of CKD, from 452,198 to 710,377. Direct costs would increase from 227.7M GBP in 2020 to 786.2M GBP in 2050, especially due to the rise in end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) cases. A reduction in the proportion of fast progressors would decrease the number of individuals worsening to stages 5 and ESKD, thus reducing the total costs of CKD. At an individual level, on average, an adult aged 64 in ESKD has 4.2 fewer life-years and 3.2 fewer quality-adjusted life-years compared with an individual in CKD stage 3b at baseline. Conclusions: Chilean guidelines should consider the high percentage of adults at early CKD stages. There is a need to develop effective preventive and treatment plans to reduce prevalence and delay the progression of CKD and thus the burden and costs of the disease in Chile.
| Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Qualification: | Ph.D |
| Title: | Chronic Kidney Disease in Chile: Analysis of the present and future burden of the disease in the Chilean adult population |
| Event: | UCL (University College London) |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © The Author 2021. Original content in this thesis is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) Licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). Any third-party copyright material present remains the property of its respective owner(s) and is licensed under its existing terms. Access may initially be restricted at the author’s request. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10135227 |
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