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A bootstrap method to investigate the variability of overheating risk against the future climate uncertainty in dwellings

Cui, C; Raslan, R; Korolija, I; (2021) A bootstrap method to investigate the variability of overheating risk against the future climate uncertainty in dwellings. In: Proceedings of the Building Simulation 2021 Conference. (pp. pp. 1-8). International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA) Green open access

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Abstract

Future overheating risk in dwellings can be potentially mitigated by minimising the variability of overheating hours against uncertainties in future climate via robust optimisation. However, the estimation of this variability value through the utilisation of percentile-based probabilistic weather data has yet to be sufficiently investigated. In this simulation-based study, the bootstrap method is used to quantify the accuracy of the variability estimation via percentilebased weather data. The results indicate significant overheating risk in regulation-compliant houses. An increased degree of difficulty is also suggested in obtaining accurate estimations when considering time periods further in the future and when assuming higher carbon emissions. In addition, the skew normal distribution can be used for a simpler and faster estimation, but the underlying uncertainties must be strengthened throughout its implementation.

Type: Proceedings paper
Title: A bootstrap method to investigate the variability of overheating risk against the future climate uncertainty in dwellings
Event: Building Simulation 2021 Conference
Location: Bruges, Belgium
Dates: 1st-3rd September 2021
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: https://bs2021.org/
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10134738
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