Rodrigues, R;
Pietzcker, R;
Fragkos, P;
Price, J;
McDowall, W;
Siskos, P;
Fotiou, T;
... Capros, P; + view all
(2021)
Narrative-driven alternative roads to achieve mid-century CO2 net neutrality in Europe.
Energy
, Article 121908. 10.1016/j.energy.2021.121908.
(In press).
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Abstract
The tightened climate mitigation targets of the EU green deal raise an important question: Which strategy should be used to achieve carbon emissions net neutrality? This study explores stakeholder-designed narratives of the future energy system development within the deep decarbonization context. European carbon net-neutrality goals are put under test in a model comparison exercise using state of the art Energy-Environment-Economy (E3) models: ETM-UCL, PRIMES and REMIND. Results show that while achieving the transition to carbon neutrality by mid-century is feasible under quite different future energy systems, some robust commonalities emerge. Electrification of end use sectors combined with large-scale expansion of renewable energy is a no-regret decision for all strategies; Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) plays an important role for achieving net-neutral targets under all scenarios, but is most relevant when demand-side changes are limited; hydrogen and synthetic fuels can be a relevant mitigation option for mid-century mitigation in hard-to-abate sectors; energy efficiency can reduce the supply system strain. Finally, high carbon prices (300-900€/tCO2) are needed under all strategies in order to achieve carbon net neutrality in 2050.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Narrative-driven alternative roads to achieve mid-century CO2 net neutrality in Europe |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.energy.2021.121908 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.121908 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | EU green deal, CO2 net neutrality, decarbonization pathways, stakeholder driven scenarios, Energy-Environment-Economy models (E3), multi-model comparison |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10134465 |
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