Mercure, J-F;
Sharpe, S;
Vinuales, JE;
Ives, M;
Grubb, M;
Lam, A;
Drummond, P;
... Nijsse, FJMM; + view all
(2021)
Risk-opportunity analysis for transformative policy design and appraisal.
Global Environmental Change
, Article 102359. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102359.
(In press).
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Abstract
The climate crisis demands a strong response from policy-makers worldwide. The current global climate policy agenda requires technological change, innovation, labour markets and the financial system to be led towards an orderly and rapid low-carbon transition. Yet progress has been slow and incremental. Inadequacies of policy appraisal frameworks used worldwide may be significant contributors to the problem, as they frequently fail to adequately account for the dynamics of societal and technological change. Risks are underestimated, and the economic opportunities from innovation are generally not assessed in practice. Here, we identify root causes of those inadequacies and identify them to structural features of standard analysis frameworks. We use a review of theoretical principles of complexity science and the science of dynamical systems and formulate a generalisation of existing frameworks for policy analysis and the appraisal of outcomes of proposed policy strategies, to help better identify and frame situations of transformational change. We use the term “risk-opportunity analysis” to capture the generalised approach, in which conventional economic cost-benefit analysis is a special case. New guiding principles for policy-making during dynamic and transformational change are offered.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Risk-opportunity analysis for transformative policy design and appraisal |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102359 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102359 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
| Keywords: | Policy appraisal, Climate policy, Science-policy interface, Complexity science, Evolutionary economics, Public policy-making |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10134411 |
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