BISBEE, J;
HONIG, DAN;
(2021)
Flight to Safety: COVID-Induced Changes in the Intensity of Status Quo Preference and Voting Behavior.
American Political Science Review
10.1017/s0003055421000691.
(In press).
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Abstract
The relationship between anxiety and investor behavior is well known enough to warrant its own aphorism: a “flight to safety.” We posit that anxiety alters the intensity of voters’ preference for the status quo, inducing a political flight to safety toward establishment candidates. Leveraging the outbreak of the novel coronavirus during the Democratic primary election of 2020, we identify a causal effect of the outbreak on voting, with Biden benefiting between 7 and 15 percentage points at Sanders’s expense. A survey experiment in which participants exposed to an anxiety-inducing prompt choose the less disruptive hypothetical candidate provides further evidence of our theorized flight to safety among US-based respondents. Evidence from 2020 French municipal and US House primary elections suggests a COVID-induced flight to safety generalizes to benefit mainstream candidates across a variety of settings. Our findings suggest an as-yet underappreciated preference for “safe” candidates in times of anxiety.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Flight to Safety: COVID-Induced Changes in the Intensity of Status Quo Preference and Voting Behavior |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1017/s0003055421000691 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055421000691 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Political Science |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10133823 |
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