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Time sequencing the TRAP-18 indicators

Meloy, JR; Goodwill, A; Clemmow, C; Gill, P; (2021) Time sequencing the TRAP-18 indicators. Journal of Threat Assessment and Management , 8 (1-2) pp. 1-19. 10.1037/tam0000157. Green open access

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Abstract

A time sequence analysis is conducted on 125 lone-actor terrorists, most of whom mounted attacks in Europe and North America, utilizing the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18), a structured professional judgment instrument with demonstrable interrater reliability and criterion, discriminant, and predictive validity. Both frequency filters (≥3) and coefficient filters (>.50) were applied to the data. Results indicate that virtually all distal characteristics, such as criminal violence, mental disorder, and ideology, preceded the proximal warning behaviors, such as pathway, fixation, identification, leakage, last resort, and directly communicated threats. Indicators that were “gatekeepers” and “turning point events” were also identified (Taylor et al., 2008). The time sequence analysis further validates the model of the TRAP-18 as a risk instrument for the assessment and management of lone-actor terrorist violence. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved)

Type: Article
Title: Time sequencing the TRAP-18 indicators
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1037/tam0000157
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000157
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Security and Crime Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10133297
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