UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

Public health impact of low-dose aspirin on colorectal cancer, cardiovascular disease and safety in the UK – Results from micro-simulation model

Biccler, J; Bollaerts, K; Vora, P; Sole, E; Rodriguez, LAG; Lanas, A; Langley, RE; (2021) Public health impact of low-dose aspirin on colorectal cancer, cardiovascular disease and safety in the UK – Results from micro-simulation model. IJC Heart & Vasculature , 36 , Article 100851. 10.1016/j.ijcha.2021.100851. Green open access

[thumbnail of 1-s2.0-S2352906721001391-main.pdf]
Preview
Text
1-s2.0-S2352906721001391-main.pdf - Published Version

Download (317kB) | Preview

Abstract

Background: Low-dose aspirin therapy reduces the risk of cardiovascular disease and may have a positive effect on the prevention of colorectal cancer. We evaluated the population-level expected effect of regular low-dose aspirin use on cardiovascular disease (CVD), colorectal cancer (CRC), gastrointestinal bleeding, symptomatic peptic ulcers, and intracranial hemorrhage, using a microsimulation study design. / Methods: We used individual-level state transition modeling to assess the impact of aspirin in populations aged 50–59 or 60–69 years old indicated for low-dose aspirin usage for primary or secondary CVD prevention. Model parameters were based on data from governmental agencies from the UK or recent publications. / Results: In the 50–59 years cohort, a decrease in incidence rates (IRs per 100 000 person years) of non-fatal CVD (-203 and −794) and fatal CVD (-97 and-381) was reported in the primary and secondary CVD prevention setting, respectively. The IR reduction of CRC (-96 and −93) was similar for primary and secondary CVD prevention. The IR increase of non-fatal (116 and 119) and fatal safety events (6 and 6) was similar for primary and secondary CVD prevention. Similar results were obtained for the 60–69 years cohort. / Conclusions: The decrease in fatal CVD and CRC events was larger than the increase in fatal safety events and this difference was more pronounced when low-dose aspirin was used for secondary compared to primary CVD prevention. These results provide a comprehensive image of the expected effect of regular low-dose aspirin therapy in a UK population indicated to use aspirin for CVD prevention.

Type: Article
Title: Public health impact of low-dose aspirin on colorectal cancer, cardiovascular disease and safety in the UK – Results from micro-simulation model
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcha.2021.100851
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijcha.2021.100851
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © 2021 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Keywords: Aspirin, Cardiovascular disease, Colorectal cancer, Safety, Computer simulation, Epidemiology, Risk factors
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Inst of Clinical Trials and Methodology
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Inst of Clinical Trials and Methodology > MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10133044
Downloads since deposit
29Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item