Zuccolo, E;
Cremen, G;
Galasso, C;
(2021)
Comparing the Performance of Regional Earthquake Early Warning Algorithms in Europe.
Frontiers in Earth Science
, 9
, Article 686272. 10.3389/feart.2021.686272.
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Abstract
Several earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms have been developed worldwide for rapidly estimating real-time information (i.e., location, magnitude, ground shaking, and/or potential consequences) about ongoing seismic events. This study quantitatively compares the operational performance of two popular regional EEW algorithms for European conditions of seismicity and network configurations. We specifically test PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem (PRESTo) and the implementation of the Virtual Seismologist magnitude component within SeisComP, VS(SC), which we use jointly with the SeisComP scanloc module for locating events. We first evaluate the timeliness and accuracy of the location and magnitude estimates computed by both algorithms in real-time simulation mode, accounting for the continuous streaming of data and effective processing times. Then, we focus on the alert-triggering (decision-making) phase of EEW and investigate both algorithms’ ability to yield accurate ground-motion predictions at the various temporal instances that provide a range of warning times at target sites. We find that the two algorithms show comparable performances in terms of source parameters. In addition, PRESTo produces better rapid estimates of ground motion (i.e., those that facilitate the largest lead times); therefore, we conclude that PRESTo may have a greater risk-mitigation potential than VS(SC) in general. However, VS(SC) is the optimal choice of EEW algorithm if shorter warning times are permissible. The findings of this study can be used to inform current and future implementations of EEW systems in Europe.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Comparing the Performance of Regional Earthquake Early Warning Algorithms in Europe |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.3389/feart.2021.686272 |
| Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.686272 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2021 Zuccolo, Cremen and Galasso. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
| Keywords: | earthquake early warning, PRESTo, Virtual Seismologist, SeisComp, scanloc, warning time, timeliness, accuracy, GROUND-MOTION SIMULATIONS, VIRTUAL SEISMOLOGIST, P-WAVE, TOMOGRAPHY, VALIDATION, MAGNITUDE, SCENARIOS, LOCATION, STRATEGY, CATALOG |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10132036 |
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