UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

Probabilistic quantification of tsunami current hazard using statistical emulation

Gopinathan, D; Heidarzadeh, M; Guillas, S; (2021) Probabilistic quantification of tsunami current hazard using statistical emulation. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences , 477 (2250) , Article 20210180. 10.1098/rspa.2021.0180. Green open access

[thumbnail of Gopinathan_Probabilistic quantification of tsunami current hazard using statistical emulation_AAM.pdf]
Preview
Text
Gopinathan_Probabilistic quantification of tsunami current hazard using statistical emulation_AAM.pdf - Accepted Version

Download (24MB) | Preview

Abstract

In this paper, statistical emulation is shown to be an essential tool for the end-to-end physical and numerical modelling of local tsunami impact, i.e. from the earthquake source to tsunami velocities and heights. In order to surmount the prohibitive computational cost of running a large number of simulations, the emulator, constructed using 300 training simulations from a validated tsunami code, yields 1 million predictions. This constitutes a record for any realistic tsunami code to date, and is a leap in tsunami science since high risk but low probability hazard thresholds can be quantified. For illustrating the efficacy of emulation, we map probabilistic representations of maximum tsunami velocities and heights at around 200 locations about Karachi port. The 1 million predictions comprehensively sweep through a range of possible future tsunamis originating from the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ). We rigorously model each step in the tsunami life cycle: first use of the three-dimensional subduction geometry Slab2 in MSZ, most refined fault segmentation in MSZ, first sediment enhancements of seabed deformation (up to 60% locally) and bespoke unstructured meshing algorithm. Owing to the synthesis of emulation and meticulous numerical modelling, we also discover substantial local variations of currents and heights.

Type: Article
Title: Probabilistic quantification of tsunami current hazard using statistical emulation
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2021.0180
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2021.0180
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher's terms and conditions.
Keywords: hazard assessment, sediment amplification, unstructured mesh, Karachi port, Makran subduction zone, coastal engineering
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Statistical Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10130717
Downloads since deposit
22Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item