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Challenges and Lessons Learned in Applying Sensitivity Analysis to Building Stock Energy Models

Fennell, P; Van Hove, M; Weinberg, L; Bennett, G; Delghust, M; Forthuber, S; Jakob, M; ... Catenazzi, G; + view all (2021) Challenges and Lessons Learned in Applying Sensitivity Analysis to Building Stock Energy Models. In: Proceedings of Building Simulation 2021: 17th Conference of IBPSA. IBPSA (In press).

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Abstract

Uncertainty Analysis (UA) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA) offer essential tools to determine the limits of inference of a model and explore the factors which have the most effect on the model outputs. However, despite a wellestablished body of work applying UA and SA to models of individual buildings, a review of the literature relating to energy models for larger groups of buildings undertaken by Fennell et al. (2019) highlighted very limited application at larger scales. This contribution describes the efforts undertaken by a group of research teams in the context of IEA-EBC Annex 70 working with a diverse set of Building Stock Models (BSMs) to apply global sensitivity analysis methods and compare their results. Since BSMs are a class of model defined by their output and coverage rather than their structure and inputs, they represent a diverse set of modelling approaches. Key challenges for the application of SA are identified and explored, including the influence of model form, input data types and model outputs. This study combines results from 7 different modelling teams, each using different models across a range of urban areas to explore these challenges and begin the process of developing standardised workflows for SA of BSMs.

Type: Proceedings paper
Title: Challenges and Lessons Learned in Applying Sensitivity Analysis to Building Stock Energy Models
Event: Building Simulation 2021
Location: Bruges
Dates: 01 September 2021 - 03 September 2021
Publisher version: http://www.ibpsa.org/?wpmp_switcher=desktop
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10129392
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