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Perceived and actual risks of drought: household and expert views from the lower Teesta River Basin of northern Bangladesh

Salam, R; Ghose, B; Shill, BK; Islam, MA; Islam, ARMT; Sattar, MA; Alam, GMM; (2021) Perceived and actual risks of drought: household and expert views from the lower Teesta River Basin of northern Bangladesh. Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-021-04789-4. Green open access

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Abstract

Disaster risk perception and risk appraisal are essential in formulating an appropriate disaster risk reduction policy. This study examines the actual vs perceived drought risks by constructing risk indices at the household and expert levels using survey data from the lower Teesta River Basin in northern Bangladesh. The survey data were collected from 450 farmers using a structured questionnaire conducted between August and September 2019. A composite drought risk index was developed to understand households’ perceived and actual risks in the designated areas. The results show that the actual and perceived risk values differ significantly among the three case study sites locally known as Ganai, Ismail, and Par Sekh Sundar. The risk levels also differ significantly across the households’ gender, income, occupation, and educational attainment. People with insolvent socioeconomic status are more prone to drought risk compared to others. Results also reveal that the mean level of perceived risk agrees well with the actual risk, whereas females perceive comparatively higher risk than their male counterparts. Expert views on drought risk are similar to the individual household level perceived risk. The outcomes of this study would assist the policymakers and disaster managers to understand the concrete risk scenarios and take timely disaster risk reduction actions for ensuring a drought-resistant society.

Type: Article
Title: Perceived and actual risks of drought: household and expert views from the lower Teesta River Basin of northern Bangladesh
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04789-4
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04789-4
Language: English
Additional information: Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Keywords: Water Resources, Geology, Drought risk perception, Actual risk and perceived risk, Disaster risk reduction, Teesta River, Bangladesh, SOCIOECONOMIC VULNERABILITY, FLOOD, DISASTER, FARMERS, REGION, PERCEPTIONS, REDUCTION, RESPONSES, PART
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Inst for Risk and Disaster Reduction
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10129042
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