Wright, L;
Head, JA;
Jivraj, S;
(2021)
How robust is the association between youth unemployment and later mental health? An analysis of longitudinal data from English schoolchildren.
Occupational & Environmental Medicine
10.1136/oemed-2021-107473.
(In press).
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: Several studies show that youth unemployment is associated with worse mental health later in life. However, existing studies report results for only one model, or a few models, and use regression adjustment to support causal claims. We use two novel methods to address these gaps in the literature. METHODS: We use data from Next Steps, a cohort study of English schoolchildren who entered the labour market in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, and measure mental health using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) at age 25. We use specification curve analysis and a negative control outcome design (a form of placebo test) to test whether associations between youth unemployment and later GHQ-12 scores are sensitive to model specification or are likely to be confounded by unobserved factors. RESULTS: We find that the association between unemployment and later GHQ-12 is qualitatively similar across 99.96% of the 120 000 models we run. Statistically significant associations with two placebo outcomes, height and patience, are not present when regression adjustments are made. CONCLUSIONS: There is clear evidence that youth unemployment is related to later mental health, and some evidence that this cannot be easily explained by unobserved confounding.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | How robust is the association between youth unemployment and later mental health? An analysis of longitudinal data from English schoolchildren |
| Location: | England |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1136/oemed-2021-107473 |
| Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/oemed-2021-107473 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to copy, redistribute, remix, transform and build upon this work for any purpose, provided the original work is properly cited, a link to the licence is given, and indication of whether changes were made. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
| Keywords: | epidemiology, mental health, public health |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education > UCL Institute of Education UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education > UCL Institute of Education > IOE - Social Research Institute UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health > Epidemiology and Public Health |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10128953 |
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