Simoes, JFF;
Li, E;
Glasbey, JC;
Omar, OM;
Arnaud, AP;
Blanco-Colino, R;
Burke, J;
... Wright, N; + view all
(2021)
COVID-19-related absence among surgeons: development of an international surgical workforce prediction model.
BJS Open
, 5
(2)
, Article zraa021. 10.1093/bjsopen/zraa021.
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Abstract
Background: During the initial COVID-19 outbreak up to 28.4 million elective operations were cancelled worldwide, in part owing to concerns that it would be unsustainable to maintain elective surgery capacity because of COVID-19-related surgeon absence. Although many hospitals are now recovering, surgical teams need strategies to prepare for future outbreaks. This study aimed to develop a framework to predict elective surgery capacity during future COVID-19 outbreaks. Methods: An international cross-sectional study determined real-world COVID-19-related absence rates among surgeons. COVID-19-related absences included sickness, self-isolation, shielding, and caring for family. To estimate elective surgical capacity during future outbreaks, an expert elicitation study was undertaken with senior surgeons to determine the minimum surgical staff required to provide surgical services while maintaining a range of elective surgery volumes (0, 25, 50 or 75 per cent). Results Based on data from 364 hospitals across 65 countries, the COVID-19-related absence rate during the initial 6 weeks of the outbreak ranged from 20.5 to 24.7 per cent (mean average fortnightly). In weeks 7–12, this decreased to 9.2–13.8 per cent. At all times during the COVID-19 outbreak there was predicted to be sufficient surgical staff available to maintain at least 75 per cent of regular elective surgical volume. Overall, there was predicted capacity for surgeon redeployment to support the wider hospital response to COVID-19. Conclusion: This framework will inform elective surgical service planning during future COVID-19 outbreaks. In most settings, surgeon absence is unlikely to be the factor limiting elective surgery capacity.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | COVID-19-related absence among surgeons: development of an international surgical workforce prediction model |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1093/bjsopen/zraa021 |
| Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/bjsopen/zraa021 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of BJS Society Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com |
| Keywords: | disease outbreaks, surgical procedures, elective, surgical procedures, operative, illness, surgical service, workforce, covid-19 |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology > Brain Repair and Rehabilitation |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10128403 |
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