Lee, S;
Zhou, J;
Wong, WT;
Liu, T;
Wu, WKK;
Wong, ICK;
Zhang, Q;
(2021)
Glycemic and lipid variability for predicting complications and mortality in diabetes mellitus using machine learning.
BMC Endocrine Disorders
, 21
(1)
, Article 94. 10.1186/s12902-021-00751-4.
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Abstract
Introduction: Recent studies have reported that HbA1c and lipid variability is useful for risk stratification in diabetes mellitus. The present study evaluated the predictive value of the baseline, subsequent mean of at least three measurements and variability of HbA1c and lipids for adverse outcomes. Methods: This retrospective cohort study consists of type 1 and type 2 diabetic patients who were prescribed insulin at outpatient clinics of Hong Kong public hospitals, from 1st January to 31st December 2009. Standard deviation (SD) and coefficient of variation were used to measure the variability of HbA1c, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and triglyceride. The primary outcome is all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were diabetes-related complications. Result: The study consists of 25,186 patients (mean age = 63.0, interquartile range [IQR] of age = 15.1 years, male = 50%). HbA1c and lipid value and variability were significant predictors of all-cause mortality. Higher HbA1c and lipid variability measures were associated with increased risks of neurological, ophthalmological and renal complications, as well as incident dementia, osteoporosis, peripheral vascular disease, ischemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation and heart failure (p < 0.05). Significant association was found between hypoglycemic frequency (p < 0.0001), HbA1c (p < 0.0001) and lipid variability against baseline neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). Conclusion: Raised variability in HbA1c and lipid parameters are associated with an elevated risk in both diabetic complications and all-cause mortality. The association between hypoglycemic frequency, baseline NLR, and both HbA1c and lipid variability implicate a role for inflammation in mediating adverse outcomes in diabetes, but this should be explored further in future studies.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Glycemic and lipid variability for predicting complications and mortality in diabetes mellitus using machine learning |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1186/s12902-021-00751-4 |
| Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12902-021-00751-4 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > UCL School of Pharmacy UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > UCL School of Pharmacy > Practice and Policy |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10127818 |
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