Duke-Williams, O;
Stuchbury, R;
Stockton, J;
(2021)
Changing migration rates in England and Wales over a 40-year period: Is mobility declining?
Population, Space and Place
, Article e2468. 10.1002/psp.2468.
(In press).
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Abstract
Research using data for the United States has pointed towards a long-term pattern of falling migration rates. Similar research in England and Wales has also found declining migration rates when observing all migrants. Using the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (ONS LS), we study the patterns of migration observed over 10-year periods for persons in 10-year birth cohorts over each intercensal period from 1971–1981 through to 2001–2011. When the sample population is considered as a whole, the results from the LS are consistent with earlier findings: There has been a decade-on-decade decline in the migration rate as observed in longitudinal data. When disaggregated by cohort, it is apparent that this decline is not always observed for young adults, but it is consistently observed for those in their 30s and older, for whom each successive cohort has a lower migration rate than the previous one and also for whom there is a steady within-cohort decline in the migration rate over time. This is observed at both short and longer distances of move. Alternative results from successive censuses looking at migration observed for single years do not appear to confirm this decline in migration, although data collection and processing issues may be part of the explanation for this finding, and it is also the case that these data may be more subject to cyclical effects.
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