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From Claims to Violence: Signaling, Outbidding, and Escalation in Ethnic Conflict

Vogt, M; Gleditsch, KS; Cederman, LE; (2021) From Claims to Violence: Signaling, Outbidding, and Escalation in Ethnic Conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution 10.1177/0022002721996436. (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

Do radical political demands increase the risk of ethnic civil conflict? And why do ethnic movements make radical demands in the first place? We contend that when movements are fragmented, individual organizations use far-reaching claims relative to the status quo to attract attention from the government, boost intra-organizational discipline, and outbid rivals. Yet, such radical claims also increase the risk of conflict escalation. We test our arguments at both the ethnic group and organizational levels, using a new dataset on ethno-political organizations and their political demands. Our results show that the scope of demands increases the more organizations exist within an ethnic movement and that radical demands increase the risk of civil conflict onset. This effect is specific to the dyadic government-movement interaction, irrespective of other ethnic groups in the country. Moreover, at the organizational level, radicalization in demands increases the likelihood that an organization becomes engaged in civil conflict.

Type: Article
Title: From Claims to Violence: Signaling, Outbidding, and Escalation in Ethnic Conflict
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1177/0022002721996436
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0022002721996436
Language: English
Additional information: © 2021 by SAGE Publications. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Keywords: civil wars, internal armed conflict, conflict, rebellion
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Political Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10123308
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