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The driving forces behind the change in energy consumption in developing countries

Li, S; Meng, J; Zheng, H; Zhang, N; Huo, J; Li, Y; Guan, D; (2021) The driving forces behind the change in energy consumption in developing countries. Environmental Research Letters 10.1088/1748-9326/abde05. (In press). Green open access

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Li+et+al_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._10.1088_1748-9326_abde05.pdf - Accepted Version

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Abstract

Economic growth is principally powered by energy fuels. While the potential energy transition pathways in developed countries are clear, that has not been well explored for developing countries. Here, we study the average growth rate of 12 aggregated regions in 2001-2017, and the driving factors behind that growth. The countries with high growth rates are concentrated in Asia and North Africa, while the energy consumption in developed countries was stable or even declined in that period. Therefore, to quantify the role of renewable energy, the historical energy consumption for China, India, Indonesia, Myanmar and Bangladesh since the 1970s were analyzed. Despite the positive role economic development and population growth exerted on energy consumption, there has been a negative role of energy intensity exerted on energy consumption. While the effect of energy mix played a smaller role in influencing energy consumption, different types of energy played different roles in energy consumption in different countries - either promoting or restraining. China's coal, India's oil, and the share of biomass and natural gas to energy consumption in Indonesia, Myanmar and Bangladesh were more prominent in relation to energy structure. Our research results emphasize the importance of improving energy efficiency and adjusting energy structure, to reduce energy consumption and achieve sustainable development.

Type: Article
Title: The driving forces behind the change in energy consumption in developing countries
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abde05
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abde05
Language: English
Additional information: As the Version of Record of this article is going to be/has been published on a gold open access basis under a CC BY 3.0 licence, this Accepted Manuscript is available for reuse under a CC BY 3.0 licence immediately. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
Keywords: Energy consumption; Decomposition analysis; LMDI; Driving forces
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10120678
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