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The shaping of anticipation: The networked development of inferential capacity in governing Southeast Asian deltas

Hogendoorn, D; Croxatto, LS; Petersen, AC; (2021) The shaping of anticipation: The networked development of inferential capacity in governing Southeast Asian deltas. Earth System Governance , 7 , Article 100089. 10.1016/j.esg.2020.100089. Green open access

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Abstract

Motivated by foreseeable changes in the Earth's systems, governments across the world learn to anticipate the consequences. Understanding how such anticipation comes about should ease its further development. We therefore explore the central capacity within anticipatory governance: the capacity to infer future consequences. Such inferential capacity consists of tools, techniques, and practices increasing an agent's options to infer consequences. We examine the development of this capacity for two Southeast Asian deltas, using data from a multi-sited ethnography and a social network analysis. These methods combine the small-scale ‘lived’ perspective of agents and the multiscale network in which these agents deploy strategies to entrench tools, techniques, and practices for inferential capacity. Strategic choices in positioning for network effects and fostering reciprocity matter, while values and historical contingencies cannot be brushed aside.

Type: Article
Title: The shaping of anticipation: The networked development of inferential capacity in governing Southeast Asian deltas
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.esg.2020.100089
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esg.2020.100089
Language: English
Additional information: This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Keywords: Inferential capacity, Anticipatory governance, Multi-sited ethnography, Social network analysis
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > UCL Institute for Global Prosperity
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10118304
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