Hogendoorn, D; Croxatto, LS; Petersen, AC; (2021) The shaping of anticipation: The networked development of inferential capacity in governing Southeast Asian deltas. Earth System Governance , 7 , Article 100089. 10.1016/j.esg.2020.100089.

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Abstract

Motivated by foreseeable changes in the Earth's systems, governments across the world learn to anticipate the consequences. Understanding how such anticipation comes about should ease its further development. We therefore explore the central capacity within anticipatory governance: the capacity to infer future consequences. Such inferential capacity consists of tools, techniques, and practices increasing an agent's options to infer consequences. We examine the development of this capacity for two Southeast Asian deltas, using data from a multi-sited ethnography and a social network analysis. These methods combine the small-scale ‘lived’ perspective of agents and the multiscale network in which these agents deploy strategies to entrench tools, techniques, and practices for inferential capacity. Strategic choices in positioning for network effects and fostering reciprocity matter, while values and historical contingencies cannot be brushed aside.

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