Carollo, A; Bizzego, A; Gabrieli, G; Wong, KK-Y; Raine, A; Esposito, G; (2020) I’m alone but not lonely. U-shaped pattern of perceived loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK and Greece. MedRxiv: Cold Spring Harbor, NY, USA.

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Abstract

Many countries have adopted lengthy lockdown measures to mitigate the spreading of the COVID-19 virus. In this study, we train a RandomForest model using 10 variables quantifying individuals’ living environment, physical and mental health statuses to predict how long each of the UK participants (N=382) had been in lockdown. Self-perceived loneliness was found to be the most important variable predicting time in lockdown and, therefore, the aspect most influenced by the time the participant spent in lockdown. Subsequent statistical analysis showed a significant U-shaped curve for the levels of perceived loneliness (p<0.012), specifically decreasing during the 4th and 5th lockdown weeks. The same pattern was found on data from Greek citizens (N=129, p<0.041). These results suggest that lockdown measures may have affected how people evaluated their social support while in lockdown, leading to a decreased sense of loneliness. Implications of this study should be reflected on policies and countermeasures to current and future pandemics. State of relevance This study aims to inform policies for the current and/or future pandemics, particularly those involving lockdown restrictions. It highlights that self-perceived loneliness was the trait most affected by the time spent in lockdown: data show that the very first period of lockdown was characterised by a decrease in levels of perceived loneliness. The machine learning approach adopted and the statistical validation on two different Western European countries ensure that the uncovered pattern is substantial. This result highlights the dissociation between objective social support and perceived loneliness: initially, restrictions may have triggered better social behaviours among communities or increased the level of gratitude for the social support people have always received. The short duration of these desirable effects suggests that measures and campaigns promoting better social support strategies could be potentially effective, even in social isolation, to keep the levels of perceived loneliness low. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Funding Statement This research is supported by Nanyang Technological University (Singapore) under the NAP-SUG grant (G.E.). Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: Ethical approval for the COVID-19 Social Study was granted by the UCL Ethics Committee (REC 1331). The study is GDPR compliant. All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes

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