Calama-González, CM;
Symonds, P;
Petrou, G;
Suárez, R;
León-Rodríguez, ÁL;
(2021)
Bayesian calibration of building energy models for uncertainty analysis through test cells monitoring.
Applied Energy
, 282
(A)
, Article 116118. 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116118.
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Abstract
Improving the energy efficiency of existing buildings is a priority for meeting energy consumption and CO2 emission targets in buildings. Building simulation tools play a crucial role in evaluating the performance of energy retrofit options. In this paper, a Bayesian calibration approach is applied to reduce the discrepancies between measured and simulated temperature data. Through its application to a test cell case study, the incorporation of sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration techniques are proven to improve the level of agreement between on-site measurements and simulated outputs, whilst accounting for both experimental and simulation uncertainties. The accuracy of a building simulation model developed using EnergyPlus was evaluated before and after calibration. Uncalibrated models were within the uncertainty ranges specified by the ASHARE Guidelines, with hourly simulation data over-predicting measurements by 3.2 °C on average. After Bayesian calibration, the average maximum temperature difference was reduced to around 0.68 °C, an improvement of almost 80%.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Bayesian calibration of building energy models for uncertainty analysis through test cells monitoring |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116118 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116118 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian calibration, Sensitivity analysis, Uncertainty analysis, Building energy modelling, Mediterranean climate, Housing stock |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10116413 |
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