Cremen, G;
Baker, JW;
(2020)
Variance‐based sensitivity analyses and uncertainty quantification for FEMA P‐58 consequence predictions.
Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics
10.1002/eqe.3370.
(In press).
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Abstract
Earthquake loss assessment procedures for individual buildings can be a useful tool for various stakeholders, including building owners, insurers, and lenders. However, it is often not possible to provide complete information for the required inputs to these procedures because there is substantial cost and effort associated with gathering necessary data. It is therefore important to understand how different inputs to these procedures (building information/ground shaking intensity) impact the loss predictions. This can be done via sensitivity analyses. We conduct variance‐based sensitivity analyses for the FEMA P‐58 methodology, a building‐specific seismic performance assessment procedure that is making its way into seismic design and risk analysis practice. We determine how variations in different input variables of the methodology affect predictions of building loss ratio and reoccupancy time, and benchmark calculated sensitivities using the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation methodology . We also quantify additional uncertainty in consequence predictions caused by uncertainty in input variables. We use an example site in downtown Los Angeles and consider a 7‐story and a 14‐story building. Of the six inputs considered in the analyses, building loss ratio predictions are most sensitive to shaking intensity and building age, while reoccupancy time predictions are most sensitive to shaking intensity and the type of lateral system/building period. The largest additional uncertainties in building loss ratio predictions are caused by the building's lateral system or age (or both) being unknown. The results of this study provide an enhanced understanding of the interaction between inputs and consequence predictions of the P‐58 methodology.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Variance‐based sensitivity analyses and uncertainty quantification for FEMA P‐58 consequence predictions |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1002/eqe.3370 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.3370 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| Keywords: | FEMA P‐58 methodology, seismic loss predictions, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10113213 |
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