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'Will the Paris Agreement protect us from hydro-meteorological extremes?'

Farinosi, F; Dosio, A; Calliari, E; Seliger, R; Alfieri, L; Naumann, G; (2020) 'Will the Paris Agreement protect us from hydro-meteorological extremes?'. Environmental Research Letters , 15 (10) , Article 104037. 10.1088/1748-9326/aba869. Green open access

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Abstract

Multi-hazard assessment is needed to understand compound risk. Yet, modelling of multiple climate hazards has been limitedly applied at the global scale to date. Here we provide a first comprehensive assessment of global population exposure to hydro-meteorological extremes—floods, drought and heatwaves—under different temperature increase targets. This study shows how limiting temperature increase to 1.5 and 2 °C, as for the goals of the Paris Agreement, could substantially decrease the share of global population exposed compared to a 3 °C scenario. In a 2 °C world, population exposure would drop by more than 50%, in Africa, Asia and the Americas, and by about 40% in Europe and Oceania. A 1.5 °C stabilization would further reduce exposure of about an additional 10% to 30% across the globe. As the Parties of the Paris Agreement are expected to communicate new or updated nationally determined contributions by 2020, our results powerfully indicate the benefits of ratcheting up both mitigation and adaptation ambition.

Type: Article
Title: 'Will the Paris Agreement protect us from hydro-meteorological extremes?'
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aba869
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba869
Language: English
Additional information: Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
Keywords: Paris Agreement, multi-hazard exposure, Climate extremes, global warming targets
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Political Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10111041
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