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Talking about futureproofing: real options reasoning in complex infrastructure projects

Krystallis, I; Locatelli, G; Murtagh, N; (2021) Talking about futureproofing: real options reasoning in complex infrastructure projects. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

Complex infrastructure projects often attract criticism regarding their short- and long-term performance. An effective development process requires thinking about both present and future requirements. We employed the lens of real options reasoning to investigate the power of verbal theorizing, without the aid of analytical modeling, to add flexibility in the development process. Drawing on 32 semi-structured interviews with decision-makers involved in health estate projects, we examined if and how informal talks in the development process can lead to futureproof outcomes. Our findings synthesize and conceptualize relevant insights on iterative design thinking, affordability, bounded rationality, and motivational gaps as causal mechanisms for futureproofing talks and thus real options reasoning. The paper contributes to the planning and project studies literature dealing with futureproofing complex infrastructure projects.

Type: Article
Title: Talking about futureproofing: real options reasoning in complex infrastructure projects
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/RecentIssue.jsp?pu...
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: decision making, project management, real options reasoning, uncertainty
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > The Bartlett Sch of Const and Proj Mgt
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10110521
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