Guarino, M-V; Sime, LC; Schröeder, D; Malmierca-Vallet, I; Rosenblum, E; Ringer, M; Ridley, J; ... Sellar, A; + view all Guarino, M-V; Sime, LC; Schröeder, D; Malmierca-Vallet, I; Rosenblum, E; Ringer, M; Ridley, J; Feltham, D; Bitz, C; Steig, EJ; Wolff, E; Stroeve, J; Sellar, A; - view fewer (2020) Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future loss. Nature Climate Change , 10 pp. 928-932. 10.1038/s41558-020-0865-2.

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Abstract

The Last Interglacial (LIG), a warmer period 130,000–116,000 years before present, is a potential analogue for future climate change. Stronger LIG summertime insolation at high northern latitudes drove Arctic land summer temperatures 4–5 °C higher than in the pre-industrial era. Climate model simulations have previously failed to capture these elevated temperatures, possibly because they were unable to correctly capture LIG sea-ice changes. Here, we show that the latest version of the fully coupled UK Hadley Center climate model (HadGEM3) simulates a more accurate Arctic LIG climate, including elevated temperatures. Improved model physics, including a sophisticated sea-ice melt-pond scheme, result in a complete simulated loss of Arctic sea ice in summer during the LIG, which has yet to be simulated in past generations of models. This ice-free Arctic yields a compelling solution to the long-standing puzzle of what drove LIG Arctic warmth and supports a fast retreat of future Arctic summer sea ice.

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